{"id":99090,"date":"2021-09-14T07:45:01","date_gmt":"2021-09-14T06:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/?p=99090"},"modified":"2022-02-06T19:57:39","modified_gmt":"2022-02-06T19:57:39","slug":"housing-crisis-solutions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/planning-construction-news\/housing-crisis-solutions\/99090\/","title":{"rendered":"Why commonly accepted solutions to solve the housing crisis won’t cut it"},"content":{"rendered":"

Peter Bill, author of Broken Homes<\/a> and a former housebuilder, explores why commonly accepted solutions to fix the housing crisis just won\u2019t work, and offers up his own suggestions that defy conventional wisdom<\/h2>\n

Rodding the planning drains may improve the flow of applications. But reforms proposed in the \u2018Planning for the Future<\/a>\u2019 consultation, which ends on 29 October, will barely impact the flow of new homes. \u201cThe people of this country will get the homes we need in the places we want to live, at prices we can afford,\u201d said Boris Johnson last year when introducing mandatory targets already being reshaped by political realities. A deceit uttered on behalf of all Prime Ministers since 1980, when council housebuilding largely stopped.<\/p>\n

FACTOID<\/h3>\n

A \u2018factoid\u2019 is an item of unreliable information repeated so often it becomes accepted as fact. No, you can\u2019t see the Great Wall of China from the Moon. Vikings did not wear horns on their helmets. Suggesting the state can control housing numbers by boosting the number of available acres is nonsense. Housebuilders<\/a> today control the supply valve. They twist the wheel open or shut with an eye to the economy. Output is yoked to the economic cycle, not to the number of acres zoned by councils.<\/p>\n

Three further factoids circle Planet Housing. One: not enough homes are being built. Household formation figures from ONS show 170,000 homes, not 300,000, are needed each year until 2040. The crisis is one of affordability, not supply. Two: prices will fall if more homes are built. No. Adding 300,000 rather than 200,000 homes to a stock of 24.4 million will not cause price falls. New house prices are yoked to old house prices. Today\u2019s house prices are yoked to the low cost of money. That is why they went up 13% last year.<\/p>\n

The private sector could, theoretically, reach 243,000 a year by 2025, given a 9% compound growth rate. (See graphic). But can councils go from 3,000 to 7,000 and Housing Associations from 33,000 to 50, 000 by 2025HA\u2019s are freighted with debt frightened by the cost of \u2018Grenfell\u2019 repairs. The \u00a38.6bn of grants announced on 31 August are welcome and designed to get 120,000 owners a foothold on the ladder. But only when they are built. Largely by the private sector \u2013 at a rate determined by the private sector.<\/p>\n

\"housing
Source: Broken Homes<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The final factoid that needs zapping is that Modern Methods of Construction<\/a> (MMC) will somehow help \u2018solve Britain\u2019s housing crisis\u2019 by allowing homes to be built faster, cheaper and fault-free. These three things are true, taken in isolation. The first is questionable. Build rates are dictated by sales, not how fast they can be erected. Look up the Sales Per Outlet Per Week (SPOW) rate of all the top builders; their entire model is based on sales of less than one per week.<\/p>\n

\u2018Cheaper\u2019 is a not yet proven fact for MMC. It will come, of course. Most new homes will end up at least partially prefabricated.\u00a0 Those whose systems can keep the rain out and beat \u2018Murphy\u2019s Law\u2019 \u2013 what can go wrong on site will eventually go wrong \u2013 will prosper. The \u2018fault-free\u2019 bonus will be a boon to both the builder and occupier. But those of us who worked on-site between the 1960\u2019s and 1980\u2019s fear MMC is the width of a missing damp proof membrane from ugly publicity, which will damn both good and bad systems.<\/p>\n

FAULTS<\/h3>\n

I spent 12-months writing Broken Homes. <\/em>My co-author, Jackie Sadek is a former advisor to government and now a developer. We spoke with former Conservative and Labour housing ministers, housebuilders, built-to-rent specialists and many in the social housing<\/a> sector. Conclusion: The main fault is political; untested solutions promoted by partisan think tanks are adopted by housing ministers looking for a quick hit during their short term in office.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow the government seeks to reach a collective agreement on these things can be completely dysfunctional,\u2019 admits former housing minister, Lord Barwell. Another former housing minister, Mark Prisk, says \u201cIt\u2019s partly the appetite of the 24-hour press and politicians want to be seen doing something new. It\u2019s not good enough to be doing what the previous minister was doing or doing it better or quicker. There\u2019s always a demand for \u201csomething must be done\u201d policies.\u201d<\/p>\n

FIXES<\/h3>\n

Forget housing numbers. They will be taken care of by the economy, not politics.\u00a0 An \u2018eye-of-the-beholder\u2019 concept of beauty is to be introduced. A new design quango has been set up carry the concept into planning law. The on-the-ground effect will be a set of national design codes that each council will be allowed to interpret to suit local conditions.\u00a0 Nice idea. The core fix suggested in Broken Homes<\/em> is that this airy-fairy concept needs underpinning with mandatory space and density standards.<\/p>\n

Our main fix is based on the tenet \u2018everyone deserves better:\u2019 Those we call \u2018the Ghosts in the Machine\u2019 suffer brutal disregard. Not as customers, or renters. More, in absentia, as human beings. Living lives that are expected to fit rather than form the mould. Space standards are as they were 100 years ago. Density levels have soared. Between 1996 and 2011 average density jumped from 25 to 42 per hectare. Offerings of \u2018quality\u2019 which deliberately omit quantity are greenwash.<\/p>\n

Theresa May became convinced. In June 2019, while still PM, she said; \u2018I want to see an end to the era of too-small homes that keep the housing numbers ticking over but are barely fit for modern family life.\u2019 Boris also pushed for Parker-Morris + 10% \u2013 when Mayor of London. \u2018Lock the door to land speculators and just do it\u2019 is the view of Jackie Sadek, who says Boris should up the ante on space to Parker Morris + 25%.<\/p>\n

A fictional development appraisal in Broken Homes shows the impact of building fewer, larger homes has a smaller impact on residual land values than you might think.\u00a0 Nice Developer puts 1,500 homes on 71 hectares. Result: Residual land value \u00a316m \u2013 and profit of \u00a372m. Nasty Developer puts 2,000 units on the 71 hectares. Residual land value, \u00a343m and profit \u00a381m. You be the judge as to what\u2019s best for the Ghosts in the Machine.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peter Bill, author of Broken Homes and a former housebuilder, explores why commonly accepted solutions to fix the housing crisis just won\u2019t work, and offers up his own suggestions that defy conventional 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When she\u2019s not working hard on cranking out first-class content for our online viewers to enjoy, she\u2019s keeping our social media lively and up to date\u2026 you could call her a social media guru? We\u2019re sure she\u2019d like that. With a BA in English and Journalism, Steph isn\u2019t fazed by attention to detail; on the contrary, she enjoys getting her teeth into a good article. In her downtime Steph loves nothing more than getting together with friends to enjoy a few (several) gin and tonics. Think you\u2019ve got some content Steph would be interested in? You can contact her either by phone on (01270) 502876 or by email at sblundell@pbctoday.co.uk","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/steph-blundell\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/Steph_PBCToday"],"url":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/author\/stephblundell\/"}]}},"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-10-03 10:06:55","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99090\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99090"},{"taxonomy":"stakeholder_rel_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/stakeholder_rel_tag?post=99090"},{"taxonomy":"contributor_rel_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbctoday.co.uk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributor_rel_tag?post=99090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}