The Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) has warned that at current rates, the target will be missed by a third
The CIH’s UK Housing Review Autumn Briefing Paper highlights how unlikely it is that the 1.5m homes target will be hit, with 1m being more likely to be successfully delivered.
Previously, the CIH had predicted that the target would be missed by 25%, and so the prediction has worsened to a third (500,000).
Several challenges face housing supply
Over the last year, providers’ capacity to build has been significantly pressured because investment requirements have not been met, including the costs of meeting new energy efficiency requirements, upgrading heat networks, and ensuring homes meet the Decent Homes Standard.
Private developers also face challenges from market conditions, construction costs, and development viability.
Previously, it was estimated that the social housing sector could deliver 70,000 affordable homes per year, but this is now cast in shadow by these pressures.
CIH chief executive, Gavin Smart, said: “These findings show that, while the government’s ambition is welcome, current delivery is not yet matching the scale of the challenge. If we are to build the homes the country needs, councils, housing associations and developers must have the certainty and investment necessary to increase supply. Social and affordable housing will be critical to achieving that goal.
“The upcoming Autumn Budget is an important opportunity for the government to back its housing ambition with the investment needed to boost delivery, bringing forward the funding announced at the Spending Review.”
UK Housing Review editor, Mark Stephens, said: “We have a new prime minister, but once again the Autumn Briefing is launched in difficult economic circumstances and on the eve of the Autumn Budget. Much of the briefing reflects the pressures of interest rates, inflation and tight public spending.
“These circumstances contribute to making the government’s housebuilding target even more difficult to achieve. An additional challenge for the new administration will be to make English devolution work in these circumstances.”
Read the full UK Housing Review here.
“Slim chance” to hit the target
Last month, housing secretary and one of the original-champions of the 1.5m homes target, Angela Rayner admitted to the BBC in an interview that although she is “definitely not giving up”, the chances of hitting the target are “slim.”
This is due to the headwinds caused by the Iran war and consistently rising construction costs have made the manifesto pledge more and more difficult to work towards.
Read more about Rayner’s interview and the background to the target here.
