The value of project starts (below £100m) increased by 7% in Q4 2025, but still 7% below 2024 levels
Glenigan’s January 2026 construction index also shows that starts for residential construction drop by 2% in the preceding three months, and by a whole 20% year-on-year.
Non-residential starts, however, jumped by 14% on the preceding three months, and by 7% year-by-year.
Ups and downs colour the new year
Generally, the outlook for 2026 is positive due to government funding in various areas increasing, expected to boost housebuilding, amenities, infrastructure, and capital projects.
It is hoped that this boost in funding from the government will also encourage private investors to put their money into projects.
Despite project starts still being down, the mild increase of 7% is also welcome.
Glenigan’s Economics Director, Allan Wilen, says, “Contractors and subcontractors across the UK will be breathing a sigh of relief that, contrary to expectation and speculation, the sector finished up 2025 on a positive note, buoyed by significant Q.4 growth across non-residential verticals, particularly office and industrial where work has skyrocketed providing much needed momentum.
“Looking at the year ahead, whilst it won’t be a cake walk by any means, hopefully this non-residential activity boost will provide the basis for a further strengthening, reflecting the 2026 return-to-growth predictions we made in our recent Construction Forecast. However, this only addresses half the story. In the short term, the toughest nut to crack will be the persistent private residential market stagnations. Languishing in the doldrums, it desperately awaits a return of house-purchaser confidence and faster BSR clearance of high-rise projects; something the Government will no doubt chew over intensely over the first half of the year to find a way of easing the deadlock.”
2025 was a rough year
Earlier this month, the S&P Global PMIs for December 2025 were released, showing that construction had remained below the growth threshold figure of 50.0 for 12 months in a row, an entire year.
While all major construction sectors saw declines, civil engineering saw the largest drop to 32.9, and housing and commercial construction saw the steepest declines to 33.5 and 42.0, respectively.
Total work also fell, as respondents said weak client confidence and delayed investment decisions following the budget kept workloads and sales pipelines down. Employment and purchasing power also declined.
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK construction companies once again reported challenging business conditions and falling workloads in December, but the speed of the downturn moderated from the five-and-a-half-year record seen in November. Many firms cited subdued demand and fragile client confidence. Despite a lifting of Budget-related uncertainty, delayed spending decisions were still cited as contributing to weak sales pipelines at the close of the year.”
